This article explores the world of prediction markets. These online platforms allow users to bet on the outcome of anything from the Super Bowl to global political crises. For instance, in the early hours of January 3, Donald Trump ordered a surprise raid on Caracas to capture Nicolás Maduro. One user who had bet that Trump would successfully oust Maduro walked away with nearly $500,000.

Saahil Desai, a senior editor at The Atlantic, compares these sites to stock markets. Users invest money based on what they think will happen, though he notes they are essentially just a sophisticated form of gambling. These apps have exploded in popularity since Trump first took office, despite facing strict rules under the Biden administration.

The piece also offers a warning. It suggests that media partnerships with these platforms could be dangerous. Wealthy donors might pump millions into these markets to shift the odds, potentially skewing media coverage to fit their own interests.